The Best Actress Race Is Taking Shape: Julianne Moore Leads, With Olivia Wilde, Sandra Huller and Renate Reinsve Behind Her

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Nominations are not until early 2027, but the Best Actress race already has a shape. A Gold Derby update from September 22 had Julianne Moore at a 100 percent chance of a nomination for The Debut, with Olivia Wilde at 88.5 percent for The Invite, Inde Navarrette at 65.4 for Obsession and Sandra Huller at 65.4 for Rose.

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Virginie Efira follows at 50 percent for All of a Sudden, and Renate Reinsve at 42.3 for Fjord. These are odds blended from experts, editors and users. They are a snapshot rather than a ranking I would swear by, but the order is a sensible reflection of how the festival season went.

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The Debut is the film everyone mentions. Jesse Eisenberg wrote and directed it, A24 opens it on December 11, and festival reaction has called Moore a frontrunner. Paul Giamatti is mentioned in the supporting-actor talk, and Eisenberg has said he would prefer to keep working than to think about awards.

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Wilde is the interesting name, because she is being predicted for acting in a film that she directed. The Invite picked up four Gotham nominations this week, which will not hurt her case.

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On the Best Actor side, one Gold Derby box has John Malkovich above 95 percent for Wild Horse Nine, though other pages show different figures. Which performance do you think will still be standing in March?